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    ITV Racing Ideas & Tendencies

    York

    As we head into the second day (Thursday) on the Dante Competition at York we’ve one other prime afternoon of flat horse racing to look ahead to. The ITV4 cameras are additionally on the Knavesmire once more to absorb the primary 5 races, together with the Dante Stakes (3:35) – a number one Epsom Derby trial.

    Andy Newton is readily available with all of the ITV4 York races this Thursday with key traits and suggestions.

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    RELATED: York Races At the moment – See All Races at York At the moment: Betting, silks runners & riders

    York Horse Racing Ideas and Tendencies (ITV/RacingTV)

    1.50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

    13/13 – Had raced at York earlier than
    12/13 – Didn’t win final day trip
    12/13 – Had received at the very least 4 instances earlier than
    11/13 – Had run within the final 5 weeks
    11/13 – Got here from a single-figure draw
    11/13 – Completed within the prime 5 final day trip
    10/13 – Aged 6 or older
    9/13 – Returned a double-figure worth
    7/13 – Returned between 8/1 and 16/1
    7/13 – Favourites positioned
    6/13 – Carried 8-10 or much less in weight
    2/13 – Educated by Tim Easterby (final 2 runnings)
    1/13 – Successful favourites
    Copper Knight received the race in 2019 and 2021
    2021 Winner: Copper Knight (11/2 jfav)

    The Mick Appleby runner – Raasel – is a fast-improving sprinter and he regarded to have a bit extra up his sleeve final time than the pinnacle successful margin advised. He’s attention-grabbing and ought to be ending off properly, however 11 of the final 13 winners got here from a single-figure draw – he’s drawn 11.

    Alligator Alley, Digital and Bedford Flyer can all go properly, whereas the busy High quality Wine has been working persistently of late and will hit the body once more. However COPPER KNIGHT @ 6/1 with William Hill has landed the final two runnings of this race seems value sticking with.

    Sure, he’s up 19lbs from final yr, however he progressed up the ranks once more final season and has been rated this excessive prior to now (104). Draw 7 is ok and a latest run at Musselburgh can have him prepared for this.

    The opposite that ticks loads of the traits is JAWWAAL (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill. This Michael Dods 7 year-old is again from a break however was seventh on this race 12 months in the past and solely overwhelmed 3 lengths. He travelled properly that day however the draw (11) regarded to go towards him within the closing levels. He’s bought a greater berth in 6 this time and can love the short floor.

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    2.25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

    17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
    15/17 – Positioned within the prime 4 final day trip
    14/17 – Gained over 1m2f earlier than
    14/17 – Favourites positioned
    13/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter within the betting
    11/17 – Having first run of the season
    10/17 – Successful favourites (together with 8 of final 13)
    9/17 – Had received at the very least 4 instances earlier than
    9/17 – Had raced at York earlier than
    5/17 – Ran at Newmarket final day trip
    4/17 – Had received at York earlier than
    3/17 – Gained final day trip
    3/17 – Educated by Sir Michael Stoute
    2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
    2/17 – Winners from stall 1
    1/17 – Irish educated winners
    2021 Winner: Queen Energy (6/4 fav)

    This seems set to to be a battle between Sir Michael Stoute, who has two main fancies – Midday Star and Ville De Grace, and the Irish – who ship over Thunder Kiss and Forbearance.

    Of that bunch, Thunder Kiss is the top-rated within the area and is a giant participant after a prime win at Cork final day trip, however is but to race exterior G3 firm. Forbearance received a Listed race right here final season, however the fear along with her is the drop again to 1m2f – all wins final season came to visit 1m4f+.

    In order that leaves the Soute runners – Ville De Grace – and NOON STAR @ 10/3 with William Hill. The previous was shut second at HQ final day trip and might be higher for that run, however it’s attention-grabbing that Ryan Moore, who rode her that day prefers Midday Star.

    This 4 year-old was a head Listed Stakes winner at Nottingham final time over 1m2f and has now received 3 of her final 6 races. She was additionally runer up within the Musidora Stakes right here final season so the monitor is ok, whereas Moore couldn’t be using any higher in the meanwhile.

    3.00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

    16/16 – Rated between 96-105
    15/16 – Had received over a mile earlier than
    14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
    13/16 – Favourites positioned within the prime 4
    11/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
    11/16 – Had raced within the final 6 weeks
    10/16 – Got here from a single-figure draw
    10/16 – Had received at the very least 4 instances earlier than
    8/16 – Positioned final day trip
    7/16 – Aged 4 years-old
    3/16 – Successful favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
    1/16 – Gained final day trip
    2021 Winner: Kynren (17/2)

    With ALL of the final 16 winners rated between 96-105, then the highest 5 on the cardboard – Bless Him, Brunch, Isla Kai, Cruyff Flip and What’s The Story.

    Of that lot, it’s arduous to disregard the Nigel Tinkler runner – ISLA KAI @ 5/1 with William Hill– who has solely had seven profession runs and received 4 of them. He returned final months at Newmarket with a cracking 4th of 17 and will now be spot on for this.

    Others to notice decrease down the weights are Hortzador, Redarna, La Trinidad, Lightening Firm and Trais Fluors, however CD winner – BRUNCH (e/w) @ 8/1 with William Hill – is the opposite decide. He was a neck runner-up on this 12 months in the past and appears arrange for an additional massive show after good runs within the Lincoln (eighth) and the G3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes final time at Newmarket.

    3.35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

    17/19 – Winners that went onto run within the Epsom Derby (4 received)
    15/19 – Completed third or higher final day trip
    13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter within the betting
    13/19 – Had a earlier race that season
    12/19 – Gained their earlier race
    10/19 – Went onto be positioned within the Epsom Derby
    5/19 – Had received over 1m2f earlier than
    4/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
    4/19 – Successful favourites
    3/19 – Gained by coach Aidan O’Brien (received it 4 instances in all)
    3/19 – Gained by coach Sir Michael Stoute (received it 6 instances in all)
    3/19 – Gained by jockey Ryan Moore
    3/19 – Educated by John Gosden (3 of final 7 runnings)
    3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
    2/19 – Educated by Mark Johnston (2 of final 5)
    2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
    1/19 – Had run at York earlier than
    0/19 – Winners from stall 2
    Simply 2 successful favourites within the final 14 runnings
    Golden Horn (2015) was the final Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
    2021 Winner: Hurricane Lane (5/1)

    The James Ferguson yard have a pleasant horse on his palms in El Bodegon, who is bound to be well-liked when punters see that his final run in October was a 1 1/2 size beating of final Sunday’s straightforward winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial – Stone Age.

    Nevertheless, that win got here on very gentle floor and although that kind has been given an enormous enhance this 3 year-old colt is but to race on floor faster than good-to-soft – that will be the priority.

    We will’t ignore something coach Aidan O’Brien ship to submit in the meanwhile – he landed a lot of the massive races at Chester final week and already holds a giant hand within the Epsom Derby betting market. He runs Bluegrass right here, with Ryan Moore using. However he was solely third final day trip at Leopardstown and has thus far been unplaced in each runs over 1m2f.

    Masekela, for Andrew Balding, has a Derby entry and confirmed respectable kind as a 2 year-old final season, however the fear for him and in addition Royal Partronage, who beat him at HQ final Sept, is getting this longer journey.

    So, the 2 that look the more than likely to battle this out are the Gosden runner- Magisterial and the Stoute-trained Desert Crown.

    The once-raced Desert Crown is @ 6/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby and already has a tall fame even after simply the one run and win. That got here at Nottingham final November, however it was an eye catching 5 1/2 size success. The small fear although is that got here on gentle floor and he’s additionally not had a run since – whereas, most of his important rivals have been on the monitor within the final month or so.

    We’ve additionally solely seen 2 successful Dante Stakes favourites within the final 14 runnings, which might be a adverse for Desert Crown if he retains his place on the head of the market.

    So, the decide is the Frankel colt – MAGISTERIAL @ 7/2 with William Hill. He might be well-liked with Frankie Dettori additionally using and he returned final month with a pleasant win at Leicester. He’s @ 25/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby – odds that can disappear if he can win this.

    He’s clearly an enhancing kind and with three profession runs is a good bit extra skilled than Desert Crown (1 run). He additionally regarded to have a bit up his sleeve final time at Leicester and although it is a massive step up in grade he’s bought highly effective connections that really feel he’s as much as the duty.

    4.10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 5f ITV4

    10/10 – Had received over 5f or 6f prior to now
    8/10 – Gained between 1-2 instances earlier than
    8/10 – Positioned within the prime 5 final day trip
    7/10 – Ran not more than 6 instances
    7/10 – Rated between 98-103
    7/10 – Drawn in stall 1-5
    7/10 – Irish bred
    6/10 – Positioned favourites
    6/10 – Had run on the monitor earlier than
    5/10 – Gained final day trip
    3/10 – Successful favourites
    3/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
    2021 Winner: Winter Energy (5/1)

    Boonie bought as much as win by 3/4 of a size at Nottingham final day trip and is just up 4lbs for that right here. Khunan and the one CD winner within the area – Undertaking Dante – will be thought-about too.

    Nevertheless, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a promising sprinter on their palms in KING OF BAVARIA @ 15/8 with William Hill, who was final seen working properly in a Listed race at Navan. Prioer to that he received each begins and although the drop again to 5f won’t be completely excellent having stayed on properly the final day over 5 1/2f, he’s proven loads of pace to deal with it.

    Of the remainder, a saver on LAST CRUSADER (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill too with jockey Danny Tudhope having received two of the final 4 runnings of this. He ran properly at Group degree final season so this drop right into a Listed race will assist and might be fitter for a return run at HQ final month.

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    York Horse Racing Occasions and Race Card: Thurs twelfth Might 2022

      1:50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4
      2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2½f ITV4
      3:00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV4
      3:35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2½f ITV4
      4:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4
      4:45 – Frank Whittle Partnership EBFstallions.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
      5:20 – Fidomoney Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 2m½f RTV

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