As soon as Daniil Medvedev has management, he not often relinquishes it.

In 2023, the World No. 3 has misplaced simply as soon as in 48 tour-level matches by which he has gained the primary set. Adrian Mannarino’s 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 second-round victory in ‘s-Hertogenbosch in June makes the Frenchman the one proprietor of a comeback victory in opposition to Medvedev this season.

Medvedev’s masterclass in frontrunning is just not a brand new development, both. He’s now 272-28 throughout his profession after profitable the opening set. These statistics from Infosys ATP Stats counsel the 27-year-old will take an enormous step in direction of his second main title by beginning quick in opposition to Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s US Open championship match.

Highest Win Proportion After Profitable First Set, 2023

A take a look at Medvedev’s earlier victories in opposition to Djokovic additionally suggests the opening set could possibly be essential. 4 of his 5 Lexus ATP Head2Head victories in opposition to the Serbian got here after he gained the primary set, together with his solely comeback victory coming within the pair’s Cincinnati semi-final in 2019.

Nonetheless, there are additionally fewer opponents who’re more likely to be much less bothered by such numbers than 23-time Grand Slam titlist Djokovic, famend for his means to grab victory from the jaws of defeat and particularly relating to five-set battles on the majors.

The Serbian has been nearly as succesful a frontrunner as Medvedev this yr (he’s 38-2 in 2023 after profitable the opening set), and the numbers additionally point out Djokovic doesn’t rely as closely on a quick begin as his championship-match opponent. Medvedev is 8-10 this season after dropping the opening set, whereas Djokovic by comparability is 6-3.

So the primary field for Medvedev to tick when he steps out on Arthur Ashe Stadium? Begin quick and take the opening set. The second? To place his foot down and don’t look again… Similar to he did in his straight-sets victory in opposition to the Serbian within the 2021 last at Flushing Meadows.