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    NFL greatest bets Week 4: Chiefs, Rams, Texans amongst smartest picks to focus on

    Week 3 continued a topsy-turvy begin to the 2021 NFL season. Underdogs received for the third consecutive week and posted a mark of 9-7 in opposition to the unfold for the second straight week. Extra impressively, a number of underdogs dealing with playoff groups from final 12 months — the Chargers, Vikings and Bengals — have been in a position to win outright.

    These outcomes have left some bettors completely happy, some pissed off and a few downright confused. The 2021 season has been unpredictable up to now, and also you want solely take a look at the AFC West standings to see simply how backward issues have gotten. By three weeks, the last-place group is none apart from the Chiefs.

    AFC West standings


    Virtually no person would have predicted these outcomes at this level within the season, however that is what makes the NFL so nice; parity.

    MORE: Full checklist of odds for NFL Week 4

    That stated, after three full weeks of outcomes, gamblers have much more information at their fingertips. They will be capable of make extra knowledgeable selections about every group and might truly analyze if a efficiency by a selected group was an outlier, be it good or dangerous. It is also simpler to see which groups have been fortunate and unfortunate at this early stage within the season.

    As all the time, it is necessary not overreact to any latest outcomes or to place an excessive amount of inventory right into a group’s file. For instance, the Broncos are 3-0 on the season, however the groups they’ve crushed — the Jaguars, Jets and Giants — are a mixed 0-9. So, are the Broncos truly good, or did they only domiante weaker competitors? We’ll discover out after they face the Ravens as one-point favorites in Week 4.

    Additionally, proceed to keep watch over accidents. Groups which are lacking a number of starters on protection or offense are all the time susceptible. We noticed that with the Steelers’ banged-up protection in opposition to the Bengals final week. Moreover, groups with quarterback questions and accidents on the place deserve additional scrutiny.

    This is a take a look at Sporting Information’ greatest bets for Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season, together with picks in opposition to the unfold, moneyline bets, over/underneath wagers and a few participant props.

    JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/underneath | Participant props

    NFL greatest bets Week 4

    (All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)

    Rams (-4.5) vs. Cardinals

    The Rams have confirmed to be the most effective NFL groups thus far in 2021, and so they have likelihood to stay because the final unbeaten standing within the not-so-distant future. Their Week 4 matchup with the Cardinals might look robust on paper, however latest historical past favors the Rams on this one.

    Los Angeles has by no means misplaced to Arizona throughout Sean McVay’s time because the coach of the Rams. He holds an 8-0 file in opposition to Arizona and the Rams have received these video games by a median of 20 factors. Solely one of many video games was determined by fewer than 10 factors.

    It is value noting that Kyler Murray was solely the Cardinals’ beginning quarterback in 4 of these video games, however his numbers have nonetheless been poor in opposition to the Rams protection. He has logged a completion share of 58.7 in opposition to the Rams and has generated six whole touchdowns in comparison with seven turnovers.

    Brandon Staley could also be gone, however Raheem Morris has confirmed adept at getting his protection to carry out in key spots. He ought to discover a strategy to preserve Murray off-balance. Murray has thrown 4 interceptions via three video games this season, so he’s liable to make some errors in opposition to the Rams’ sturdy secondary.

    In any case, we noticed what the Rams did to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers final week. The protection restricted Tampa Bay to 17 factors earlier than the Bucs made issues respectable with a garbage-time landing within the Rams’ 34-24 win.

    On the opposite facet of the ball, the Rams’ offense is averaging 304.3 passing yards per recreation, good for the sixth-most within the NFL. The Cardinals have been strong in opposition to the cross this 12 months, however they could have bother slowing down the Rams’ arsenal of weapons. They merely haven’t got the cornerback depth wanted to cowl the likes of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson and a seemingly rejuvenated DeSean Jackson.

    The Rams can win this one by a landing; given their historical past, they need to. You’ll be able to belief them as favorites this week though they’re dealing with one other undefeated group.

    Chiefs (-7.5) at Eagles

    The Chiefs have not been reliable in opposition to the unfold of late. In actual fact, because the starting of the 2020 season, they’re simply 8-14 and so they’re 0-3 ATS this 12 months. In addition they have the second-lowest cowl share within the NFL (36.4) in that span. Solely the Jets (31.6) are worse.

    That stated, Kansas Metropolis must be hyper-motivated to win their Week 4 contest. They’re sitting at 1-2 on the season and are in final place within the AFC West. They’re assured to stay there for an additional week, however they’ve to start out fascinated about catching the Raiders and Broncos, who’re each 3-0.

    The Eagles will give the Chiefs likelihood to win. Philadelphia simply struggled immensely to cease the Cowboys’ offense. The Cowboys run the ball higher than the Chiefs, however Clyde Edwards-Helaire ought to be capable of make the most of the Eagles’ Twenty sixth-ranked run protection that permits 133.7 dashing yards per recreation.

    Oh yeah, the Chiefs even have Patrick Mahomes, too. Mahomes has misplaced back-to-back video games simply twice in his profession. What has he achieved after these two-game shedding streaks? He has helped the Chiefs win by a median of 28 factors per recreation. That features a 32-point win over the Raiders in 2018 and a 24-point win over the Broncos in 2019.

    The Eagles could possibly run the ball a bit on the Chiefs, who struggled in opposition to Lamar Jackson earlier within the season and have the NFL’s second-worst run protection, however will they be capable of do sufficient if Mahomes and the Chiefs shred the Eagles’ protection like Dallas did? The Cowboys simply scored 41 factors on them, so the Chiefs might do the identical.

    On the finish of the day, this looks as if bounce-back spot for the Chiefs. We’re prepared to belief them after fading them in opposition to the Chargers final week.

    MORE: Inside Justin Tucker’s record-breaking area aim

    Texans (+16.5) at Payments

    I do know what you are pondering. The Texans will not be group and they’ll be beginning Davis Mills in simply his second profession NFL recreation. The Payments have received their final two video games by 22 and 35 factors respectively.

    So, why do you have to decide the Texans? All of it has to do with historical past and motivation.

    Since 2003, groups which are 14-point underdogs or greater have posted a file of 70-61-4 in opposition to the unfold, per Meaning the favourite has coated 45.1 p.c of the time whereas the underdog has coated 51.9 p.c of the time. That is a strong benefit for the underdog.

    What can we take away from this? It is merely tough for a favourite to cowl a ramification of two touchdowns or extra. As such, it is normally higher to go along with the underdog, as all it’d take is one garbage-time landing or fluky turnover from the favourite to earn a canopy.

    The Payments are also group to fade right here contemplating their upcoming schedule. They’re enjoying the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 5, so they could be wanting forward a bit to that AFC Championship Recreation rematch. In the event that they barely overlook the Texans, that would give Houston an opportunity to remain within the recreation longer and stop the Payments from pulling away outright.

    The Texans even have a relaxation benefit having final performed on “Thursday Night time Soccer” in Week 3. So, they will be a bit more energizing than the Payments.

    Buffalo will nearly actually win this recreation. The -1200 moneyline implies that they’ve a 92.3 p.c likelihood to do this. However do not be shocked if the Texans preserve it from getting out of hand and canopy this 16.5-point unfold.

    Quarterback | Working again | Extensive receiver | Tight finish | D/ST | Kicker

    Greatest NFL moneyline bets Week 4Falcons moneyline (+108) vs. Washington

    Neither the Falcons nor the Washington Soccer Staff has performed properly in the course of the 2021 NFL season. Or on the very least, their strongest items have not lived as much as the expectations set for them.

    The Falcons offense has averaged simply 16 factors per recreation and has recorded simply 301.3 yards per recreation, good for the sixth-fewest within the NFL. Matt Ryan hasn’t seemed good thus far — he has posted a QBR of 34.6 via three video games, by far the bottom of his profession — so until he can snap out of his funk, the Falcons offense will proceed to sputter.

    Nonetheless, Washington’s protection has been even worse. They have been thought of elite coming into the season and have been anticipated to be a top-10 defensive unit, naked minimal. As an alternative, they’ve failed spectacularly and are permitting the second-most yards per recreation league-wide (432) and fourth-most factors per recreation (30.7).

    This recreation looks as if a real coin-flip, so getting Atlanta as a house underdog — Washington opened as a 1.5-point favourite — is an honest worth. Washington is simply 2-8 in opposition to the unfold of their final 10 video games as favorites (relationship again to 2018) and Matt Ryan has a 62-40 profession file at dwelling. Maybe the Falcons will grind out one other ugly win, simply as they did final week over the Giants.

    Seahawks moneyline (+126) at 49ers

    This moneyline wager appears to be like like a pleasant one — in the event you do not thoughts a little bit of threat. The 49ers are favored by three over the Seahawks, however there’s historical past between these two groups that demonstrates Seattle will be the better option.

    The Seahawks have received 15 of the final 18 video games they’ve performed in opposition to the 49ers outright. The 49ers have been a bit higher in opposition to Seattle since Kyle Shanahan’s arrival, however they’re nonetheless simply 2-6 in opposition to the Seahawks underneath his watch.

    The difficulty with the 49ers is that the Seahawks can make the most of their weaknesses. San Francisco’s cornerback depth is missing already on account of accidents, and so they could also be with out Josh Norman on this contest. Ok’Waun Williams is banged-up as properly and Jason Verrett is out for the season with a torn ACL. That is three of the group’s prime 4 cornerbacks.

    If these corners out, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could possibly be in for giant video games in opposition to a leaky secondary. They might put up numbers much like Davante Adams’; he posted is 12 catches, 132 yards and a landing in Week 3 in opposition to San Francisco.

    On the opposite facet of the ball, the Seahawks haven’t got run protection and have allowed 155 dashing yards per recreation. Usually, that might bode properly for Shanahan’s run-first offense, however they are going to be with out Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMycal Hasty; Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) was out of motion final week, so he could also be questionable, too.

    The 49ers can get by with Trey Sermon and fullback Kyle Juszczyk as their prime working backs. Nonetheless, they merely lack explosive play-making means on the place with their backfield hurting, so the Seahawks could also be higher poised to gradual them down.

    Another factor: Russell Wilson has by no means misplaced three video games in a row throughout his profession. He’s 8-0 when coming off back-to-back losses. He ought to have an opportunity to guide his group to victory on this one.

    MORE WEEK 4 DFS: Greatest stacks | Greatest values | Lineup Builder

    Greatest NFL over/underneath bets Week 4Panthers at Cowboys: UNDER 50.5 (-110)

    Christian McCaffrey performed in three video games for the Panthers final season and missed 13. Within the three video games that he performed, the Panthers averaged 26 factors per recreation. Within the 13 that he missed, their common dropped to twenty.9.

    The Panthers at the moment are anticipated to be with out McCaffrey for at the least a few weeks, and he will not play in opposition to the Cowboys. They might battle to attain with him out of the lineup; they’d simply 17 factors on seven drives in opposition to the Texans after he left the sport.

    Dallas’ protection has been a lot improved this 12 months and has allowed simply 22.3 factors per recreation this season. They need to have an opportunity to restrict the McCaffrey-less Panthers, and they need to be restricted on offense themselves.

    The Panthers protection is permitting simply 10 factors per recreation and a league-low 191 yards per recreation thus far this season. The Cowboys ought to exceed each of these numbers, however that is the hardest protection that they’ve confronted thus far. Do not be shocked if this can be a grind-it-out recreation, very similar to their 20-17 win over the Chargers.

    Taking the underneath here’s a wise transfer. The Cowboys could proceed to attain, however the Panthers appear prone to gradual them down at the least a bit. Eclipsing a 50.5-point over-under looks as if a tricky ask.

    Greatest NFL participant prop bets Week 4

    Participant props will probably be added all through the week main as much as video games.

    Mac Jones passing yards: OVER 254.5 (-114)

    The Patriots vs. Buccaneers recreation will probably be all about Tom Brady, however do not sleep on Mac Jones placing up some strong numbers. The sport script ought to favor him on “Sunday Night time Soccer.”

    The Buccaneers are permitting a median of 63.7 dashing yards per recreation. That is the fourth-fewest within the NFL. The group has additionally been the No. 1-ranked run protection in every of the final two seasons, so the Patriots are going to have bother working the ball, particularly with the group now skinny on the place in wake of James White’s hip harm.

    As such, Jones must throw loads on this one. That may work simply superb, because the Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 338 passing yards per recreation. Their secondary is banged-up and skinny; that is a part of why they signed Richard Sherman on Wednesday. Sherman will probably be an improve for the group, however he should still be studying the scheme. So, it may not play a lot on Sunday — if he performs in any respect.

    The Patriots may even need to go blow-for-blow with Brady on this one. One of the simplest ways to do this will probably be to cross the ball, so anticipate Jones to come back out firing early and infrequently.

    Jones has thrown for at the least 270 yards in two of his three NFL begins. He additionally has tried at the least 30 passes in all three video games he has performed. Invoice Belichick might want to lean on him on this one. That will not lead to a win, and even a possibility to maintain this one shut. It’s going to, nevertheless, give him a shot at one other 270-yard day via the air.

    IYER: Why the Patriots have zero likelihood to beat the Bucs

    Ja’Marr Chase receiving yards: OVER 66.5 (-114)

    Jacksonville has struggled immensely to cowl No. 1 receivers all through the season. They’ve allowed 4 100-yard video games to receivers via three weeks. As a rule, the No. 1 receiver on every group has torched the Jaguars.

    100-yard WRs vs. Jacksonville, 2021

    Brandin Cooks
    Courtland Sutton
    A.J. Inexperienced
    Christian Kirk

    Chase figures to make the most of this. He must be Joe Burrow’s No. 1 goal in opposition to the Jaguars and he has averaged 73.3 receiving yards per recreation regardless of enjoying the Bears and Steelers in latest weeks.

    Chase will probably be poised for a giant day in opposition to the Jaguars, particularly if Tee Higgins (shoulder) is unable to play on a brief week. Higgins did not play in Week 3 in opposition to the Steelers, so he could not swimsuit up on “Thursday Night time Soccer” both.

    This can be a great spot wherein to belief Chase. This quantity appears too low, and he’ll solely want one lengthy catch to make this really feel like a foregone conclusion.

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