The NFL’s 12 months of the underdog continues. In Week 2, underdogs went a stable 9-7 in opposition to the unfold. It wasn’t fairly as sturdy as their 12-4 file in Week 1, but it surely nonetheless brings their complete file on the 12 months to 21-11. So, 65.6 % of the time, underdogs have lined this 12 months.
Will that development proceed to final? Most likely not. There ought to be regression to the imply in some unspecified time in the future.
That mentioned, there are nonetheless loads of high quality underdogs for NFL bettors to belief. Bettors simply have to grasp the tendencies and matchups that profit these groups; in addition they ought to take a look at the betting odds to see which groups are undervalued and which groups are overvalued after two weeks of NFL motion.
IYER: Contenders and pretenders after two weeks of the 2021 NFL season
The primary two weeks of the NFL season have given bettors much more information in regards to the 2021 NFL season, however the NFL can shift quickly from week to week. Want an instance? How in regards to the Saints and Packers. In Week 1, the Saints received by 35 and held Inexperienced Bay to only three factors. In Week 2, the Packers beat the Lions by 18 whereas the Saints had been manhandled by the Panthers protection and held to seven factors in a loss.
Accidents additionally proceed to shift the NFL panorama. Numerous gamers went down through the massacre that was Week 2, and now 4 groups are coping with quarterback issues. Tyrod Taylor will not play for the Texans on “Thursday Night time Soccer” whereas Carson Wentz (Colts), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) and Andy Dalton (knee) are all questionable at greatest this week. That might have an effect on their groups as they give the impression of being to cowl.
The accidents may additionally trigger some late-week line strikes. So, in the event you like how a line seems now, it might be greatest to guess it early and to make sure it does not skyrocket if any QB is said out.
For extra knowledgeable NFL predictions, try Sporting Information’ picks straight up and in opposition to the unfold for Week 3.
WEEK 3 NFL PICKS: In opposition to the unfold | Straight up
NFL odds for Week 3
Under are the most recent Week 3 NFL odds, together with level spreads, cash strains and over-under totals for each sport, in accordance with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Final up to date: Wednesday, Sept. 22
NFL level spreads Week 3
NFL cash strains Week 3
NFL over-unders Week 3
NFL POWER RANKINGS: New staff climbs to No. 2 spot
NFL greatest bets for Week 3Chargers (+6.5) at Chiefs
The Chiefs are nonetheless seen as the favourite to win the AFC, however they’ve hit a few bumps within the highway to start out the season. Notably, their protection has been dangerous, and that is one thing of which the Chargers can take benefit.
Kansas Metropolis has allowed an NFL-high 469 complete yards per sport. Their 202 speeding yards allowed per sport additionally tops the NFL, although that quantity is skewed a bit by having performed Lamar Jackson and Nick Chubb.
It is true that the Chiefs have performed formidable offenses in Weeks 1 and a pair of. The Browns and the Ravens each possess weapons on the bottom and stable teams of pass-catchers, however the Chargers boast a equally sturdy offense led by Justin Herbert.
Herbert threw for 337 yards in his first sport and 338 yards in his second. He has had a few turnovers however largely, he has helped the Chargers’ offense to maintain buzzing. With Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jared Cook dinner and Austin Ekeler in tow, he has a whole lot of weapons that he can use to choose aside Kansas Metropolis’s protection.
It is also price noting that latest Chargers vs. Chiefs video games have been shut. 4 of the final 5 video games have been determined by seven factors or fewer. Los Angeles simply at all times appears to discover a technique to keep in video games in opposition to Kansas Metropolis.
As such, we just like the Chargers right here to cowl. They might not win outright, however getting 6.5 factors with an offense this good is a threat price taking. We’ll even be positioned to earn a possible backdoor cowl if the Chiefs are main by two possessions late, so this looks as if a stable worth.
NFL MVP ODDS: Tom Brady in a three-man race, per newest Vegas odds
Titans (-5.5) vs. Colts
The Colts are in dire straits on the quarterback place. Carson Wentz is coping with two sprained ankles and will not be able to play Sunday. If he cannot go, Jacob Eason will probably begin with Brett Hundley serving because the backup. Neither conjures up a lot hope, even in opposition to a porous Tennessee protection.
The Titans lack expertise on protection and have allowed the third-most factors per sport within the NFL this season (34). Nonetheless, they need to have extra success in opposition to Eason, who has solely thrown 5 profession passes of which one was intercepted, or Wentz on two dangerous ankles.
On the floor, 5.5 factors might look like lots for the Titans contemplating that the Colts hung with the Rams final week. That mentioned, latest Colts vs. Titans video games have not actually been shut, because the winner has outscored the loser by a median of 12.9 factors over the past 10 video games. And solely two of these video games in complete had been determined by lower than a landing.
This all makes the Titans appear like an interesting guess, particularly since they can tire out the Colts’ protection by utilizing Derrick Henry. If they’ll do this, they need to have an opportunity to win by double digits. Betting on them to win by lower than a landing is an effective worth.
Broncos (-10.5) vs. Jets
The Broncos are a staff to belief as soon as once more. The principle purpose for trusting Denver this time is not due to Teddy Bridgewater’s sterling 37-13-1 file in opposition to the unfold. It is all about Vic Fangio in opposition to rookie quarterbacks.
Fangio may not fairly be Invoice Belichick-level in opposition to rookies, however he has logged a 19-9 file in opposition to them since turning into a defensive coordinator in 1995. The consists of wins over Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb and Justin Herbert.
You do not have to look far for an much more latest pattern both. Denver beat Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars in Week 2 and lined a six-point unfold. They received by 10 factors.
Fangio’s defenses have allowed 33 touchdowns whereas recording 26 interceptions in 28 video games in opposition to rookie quarterbacks. Zach Wilson simply confronted Belichick and the Patriots and threw 4 interceptions whereas scoring six factors. He might discover it tough to maneuver the ball as soon as once more.
Trusting the Broncos to cowl a ten.5-point unfold might not sound thrilling in principle, however the Broncos ought to have defensive success in opposition to Wilson very similar to the Patriots did. And because the Broncos have higher offensive weapons than the Patriots, they need to be capable of win this one by double digits. The one factor we should always have to fret about is a possible backdoor cowl.
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